Missouri Schedule Preview - Z. Lynn's Predictions

I won't bother saying whether or not Post Route will continue this Fall, but with College Football thick in the air, I couldn't help but type this up.  As for my prediction credibility, well, let my unprecedented 4 pool victories last year speak for themselves!  We can argue about these picks all we want, but let's be sure to come back to them at the end of the season.

Here they are! 

Mizzou vs. Southeastern Louisiana

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 21 points

A standard warm-up game.  If Missouri loses this one for some reason, the rest of the season is really irrelevant, since they should get kicked out of the SEC and demoted to the FCS immediately.

Mizzou vs. Georgia

Winner: Georgia

Margin of Victory: 13 points

Yes, Georgia running back Crowell is off the team.  Yes, the Bulldogs have some key players suspended.  But this is still the team that won the SEC East, and then played an entire half of perfect defense against LSU, the runner-up in the National Championship.  Georgia QB Murray, already one of the best in the SEC, will continue to improve.  Look for the Georgia D to dominate in Mizzou's SEC opener, as the famous "Missouri Spread" is put to the test.

Mizzou vs. Arizona State

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 7 points

After a heartbreaking overtime loss at ASU last year, the Tigers look to return strong against a team who lost their QB to the NFL.  Look for the Sun Devils to put up a good fight as both teams are still working out the kinks, but Mizzou gets revenge at home. 

Mizzou at South Carolina

Winner: South Carolina

Margin of Victory: 17 points

This will be one of Mizzou's toughest games this year.  In their first ever SEC road game, the Tigers will be overwhelmed by the atmosphere and talent of the Gamecocks.  If Mizzou doesn't put up a good fight, this one won't even be close.

Mizzou at UCF

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 14 points

Mizzou looks to get its third win at Conference-USA opponent Central Florida.  UCF has had some success in C-USA in recent years, but won't be able to get the job done against former Big-12 Tigers.

Mizzou vs. Vanderbilt

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 8 points

I like how Vanderbilt has improved in the past couple of years, but I was disappointed in their bowl loss to Cincinnati last year.  I'm not one to believe they're as bad as people make them sound, but unfortunately for the Commodores, a game in Columbia is not going to help them overcome that stereotype.  The Tigers control a low scoring game, one not so close as the 8 point margin of victory might indicate.

Mizzou vs. Alabama

Winner: Alabama

Margin of Victory: 24 points

Did I say the SC game would be tough?  So will the Crimson Tide and their 19,000 traveling fans.  Look for the defending national champ to do to Missouri what they do to just about every other team they play: dominate.  Mizzou will be lucky to score 10 points as the Crimson TIde make themselves right at home in Columbia.

Mizzou vs. Kentucky

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 13 points

The Wildcats have been slacking lately, and in my mind the home-field advantage all but guarantees the Tigers get a fairly painless win.

Mizzou at Florida

Winner: Florida*

Margin of Victory: <3 points

This game is possibly the hardest to predict at this point.  I'm not entirely sure how good Mizzou or Florida will be, but since the game is in the Swamp, I have to give the edge to the Gators.  Missouri will win only if they are better than expected AND the Gators are worse than expected.  I'm not expecting much from Florida this year, but it will take another 6-6 year or worse for the Tigers to overcome them in the Swamp.

Mizzou at Tennessee

Winner: Tennessee*

Margin of Victory: <3 points

This game will be another close one.  Tennessee will be a very tough place to play, and returning quarterback Bray is very talented.  In my mind this game depends entirely on Mizzou being able to show us something special at the start of the season.  If they surprise and turn out to play better than expected, it could be Missouri on top by a slim margin.

Mizzou vs. Syracuse

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 13 points

Syracuse is a mediocre team in the mediocre-at-best conference, the Big East.  A late season non-conference tune up game results in another Missouri victory.

Mizzou at Texas A&M

Winner: Mizzou

Margin of Victory: 4 points

Both teams will have been through a first year in the SEC that could be tougher than they'd anticipated.  There has been a lot of excitement surrounding the Aggies for the past two years, but I think Missouri gets it done.  Mizzou won in College Station last year with a worse team than they should have this year, against a better A&M team.  Through some terrible planning, this will be the third year in a row Mizzou plays at Texas A&M, but the Tigers get their third victory in a close one.

Final Record: 7-5 or 8-4

SEC Record: 3-5 or 4-4

*If Missouri ends up 8-4, it's because they win one of these games.  It will be extremely tough to win both.

End of Season Thoughts

Bill Bishop has some end of the year thoughts:

Postroute, Postroute.  You are like the old lover with whom we all had a brief but passionate fling.  I’m making a late season booty call.  I have some thoughts on the season:

1.      Now that everyone makes it to a bowl game and the January 1^st games have been dispersed, Thanksgiving weekend is the best weekend in college football.  Rivalry games start early and run late.  This time around we have been treated to Texas/Texas A&M, Michigan/Ohio St., Clemson/South Carolina, Georgia/Georgia Tech, Pitt/West Virginia, Alabama/Auburn, Stanford/Notre Dame, Missouri/Kansas, FSU/Gators and a host of others.  For the last three days, I have been able to watch a good college football game whenever I wanted. 

2.      Missouri is joining the SEC, specifically the SEC East.  I’ve probably heard a thousand times recently, “We can compete in the East.”  Of course we can compete.  Win?  Georgia has ripped off ten straight wins and looks exactly like they were supposed to look in August.  They have more meat up front than your local butcher shop.  I’ve seen Spurrier in this position before.  One year he looks good, the next year he gets close, and then he kicks in the door leaving teams wondering what happened.  The Florida defense is stacked.  This is coming from a FSU alum.  Their offense is horrible, but they play SEC defense.  Vanderbilt just beat Wake Forest and was close enough to win every other one of their games except against Alabama.  The SEC is loaded for next year.  I could easily see Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia and South Carolina in the top ten at the start of the year.  Thank God for Kentucky.

3.   Michigan finishes the regular season at 10-2 with a win over Ohio State.  Somehow, that seems right.  Brady Hoke has done a remarkable job turning that program around and adding some respectability to the Big 10.  The Big 10 is always better when the Big Blue is doing well.  As a whole, the Big 10 has suffered through its most embarrassing season ever.  Scandals at Ohio State and Penn State have knocked the sheen off of the Big 10 in a way that one would not have imagined 12 months ago.  Football in the Big 10 seems normal again.  Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota are living at the bottom, Illinois had another inexplicable collapse that leaves you wondering if the coach will have a job come January, Iowa showed glimpses of really good football and settled for middle of the road, and the true conference power once again resides around the upper Great Lakes in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Oh yes, and no one even remembers if Northwestern suited up this season.

4.   I am not a fan of rematches in bowl games, especially in championship games.  I consider it a foregone conclusion that the BCS title game will be LSU vs. Alabama.  They are the best two teams out there, and it is apparent no one else wanted to play LSU so I guess we are stuck with it.  I envision another great defensive game in which the punter and place kicker are the most important players of the game.  My problem, though, is what will we have learned if Alabama wins?

5.   We need new rules for the PAC-12. The first rule should be that after a team makes its first 40 pass attempts, the clock no longer stops on incomplete pass plays.  PAC games last five hours because they pass the ball every play.  The second rule should be that every team is required to field an actual defensive unit.  Not 11 kids they borrowed from a local high school for the game, but honest to God real scholarship athletes who are instructed by real defensive coordinators.  I don’t know what defensive coordinators are actually paid in the PAC, but I know it is too much.  If a head coach in the PAC really wanted to win, they would go grab any SEC defensive coordinator, pay him a million dollars to recruit a defensive unit and then turn the kids loose on the field.  The other 11 teams would have no idea what hit them.  My third rule change for the PAC would be that if no team in a particular division was any good, two teams from the same division would get to play for the Championship.  Yes, that would violate my rematch aversion noted above, but anything would be better than watching the train wreck that will be Oregon vs. UCLA for the PAC championship.

6.   The best thing about conference realignment this season:  Missouri’s wrestling team will win the SEC championship next year, and every year for the foreseeable future.  After that, I’m not sure what college football as a whole has achieved.  It looks like things will settle down once the Big East works out a survival plan.  The PAC, Big 12, Big 10, SEC and ACC are set for now.  Television contracts in those conferences are pretty much set for a few years.  If the Big East can add a few, they, too will survive and get paid by the broadcasters.  I would love to see the smaller conferences (CUSA, MAC, MWC and WAC) form a 36 team super-conference.  They could institute a mini playoff with four divisions and the winner having a guaranteed BCS berth. That would be fun and they would have some clout to negotiate a good television deal.  That would settle things down a bit.

7.   I think that is about it.  I know a list of ten would be better, but I don’t have much more to say.  I have enjoyed this season of college football and look forward to the upcoming bowl games.  It has been a crazy season with a lot of parity.  Outside of the SEC, the conferences have been open for whichever team wanted to step up and win.  Mizzou beat Kansas.  FSU beat Miami and Florida, which is always good even if the games were meaningless outside of the state of Florida this year.  Thanks for taking my late night call Postroute.  I think I’ll go have a smoke now.

Because of My Love for John Wooden, I Lose Money

The following piece was written by former guest writer Travis Cearley.  Enjoy:

Because of My Love for John Wooden, I Lose Money

By Coach Cearley

Admittedly, I know next to nothing about the PAC-12.  And, admittedly, I probably won’t ever spend hours researching their CFB history because the teams there have never really held my interest in any way.  However, as a high school basketball coach, I have always held an affection for all things involving the UCLA Bruins.  They Call Me Coach, in my opinion, is a premier spiritual and philosophical text and should be counted among pieces like Lewis’ The Screwtape Letters and Chopra’s The Book of Secrets.  Over the last year I have had the pleasure of making multiple visits to the UCLA campus.  My sister currently works at the David Geffen School of Medicine, and she has taken me on tours of Westwood, including a spiritual venture into an empty Nell and John Wooden Court where the presence of something greater than yourself is unavoidable… Now my point:

The former 1984 Rose Bowl MVP is not bringing honor to his Alma-Mater.  With the loss to Arizona (which was rightfully listed as among the worst 10 teams in the nation by this blog), Neuheisel’s UCLA record drops to 18-26.  I understand that the Bruins are not a football powerhouse, but when you coach for the school that is the home of the Prophet John Wooden, you have certain responsibilities…here are three from Wooden himself:

1.      Have Enthusiasm.  I have only seen two UCLA games this year (both losses); however, I cannot recall seeing Neuheisel excited for any reason over the last three years.  And it seems as though he has given up emotionally on his team.  Since he came to UCLA, Neuheisel would make a post-game tradition of speaking to the UCLA fans after a game…win or lose…however, he ceased doing so this season.  Why?  Because he continues to lose?  Big deal.  Losing is no excuse to become emotionally aloof.  As a coach, your job is ALWAYS on the line (please refer to an earlier post regarding Coach Richt).  I have a hard time believing he just came to that realization after the Texas loss this season. 

2.      Prepare.  Nick Foles is going to pass the ball.  He is going to pass it to the wide side of the field.  The deep ball is definitely a threat; but, to allow him (or his receivers) to make a living on crossing routes, screens, and slants is just inexcusable.  Where is the pressure; where are the stunts;  and, why can’t the linebackers tackle slot receivers?  As a head coach, you are responsible for making sure your defensive coordinator is prepared.

3.      Recognize.  Number 21 (I don’t know his name) was targeted and chumped all night.  Twice he was burnt for a touchdown on the same play, and he played the entire game… in a blow-out.  If it is a close game, and he is your number one corner and the opposition scores twice on him, fine.  But in a whoopin’, send a message.  Sit his tired butt down.  Surely there is a walk-on or a freshman or a 12^th man spiritual captain that would love to get his knuckles bloody.  As a coach it is paramount that you send the message “Win or lose, we play hard.”

I want to be clear.  I am not suggesting that Neuheisel loses his job.  I have repeatedly denounced “hot seat” talk.  I just want Coach Neuheisel to carry the torch.  UCLA is the only PAC-12 team I root for or even give a crap about.  **And to my detriment, I continually pick them to be victorious.  The Ducks are too flashy (and it often feels unwarranted); The Trojans remind me too much of Ohio State; The Cardinal gave up their most interesting character to the 49ers; The Cougars are abysmal; The Buffs will always belong in the Big 8; and, The Bears, well, I mean, they’re from Berkeley.  I understand Coach Wooden passed a year-and-a-half ago, but as a fan, I want to believe that everything shrouded in the blue and gold is a direct reflection of Wooden’s spirit. Please, Mr. Neuheisel, go to Pauley and meditate; it will do your soul some good.

**Playing in a weekly CFB pool has prompted many discussions about the dangers of picking with your heart…Why can I not separate myself from this?  I will take any advice, sympathy, or criticism.

Top 25 (Week 7)

We've compiled a top 25 ranking list, but it's a little unconventional.  We would like to present to you… the top 25 worst teams in College Football!

These first five teams aren't as bad as some, but they still make the list:

25. Kentucky - Kentucky may play in the SEC, but that fact alone hasn't netted them many wins.  They sit at 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the SEC.  Their only wins came at a neutral site against Western Kentucky (14-3 Wildcats), and at home against Central Michigan (27-13 Wildcats).  Both of those teams are on this list, and won't earn them much credit.  But the Kentucky Wildcats also lost to a team on this list, and at home, too: The Louisville Cardinals.  The Kentucky offense is terrible, with 119 passing yards per game (116th in the nation), 110 rushing yards per game (101st in the nation), and only 13 points per game (118th in the nation).  In their defense, Kentucky has played at home against Florida, and at LSU and South Carolina.   

24. Army - Army proudly represents the armed forces as one of the worst teams in College Football.  They sit at 2-4 overall, their only wins being an upset over struggling Northwestern and at home against the always-bad Tulane.  They've lost to MAC powerhouses Northern Illinois, Miami Ohio, and Ball State.  At least those games were all on the road.  The Black Knights do lead the nation in rushing yards, but they are dead last in passing yards.  Their scoring offense and defense are subpar as well. 

23. East Carolina - ECU is not as terrible as some, but they are still awful enough to make the list.  When they gave South Carolina a good game in week 1, conference success seemed to be in their future, and so far a 2-1 record in Conference USA doesn't seem so bad.  The Pirates are 2-4 overall, however, and their only wins came at home against winless UAB and at the terrible Memphis Tigers.  They are 115th in the nation in rushing yards and 105th on scoring defense.

22. Rice - Rice has certainly never been a powerhouse, and things haven't changed this year.  The Owls are 2-4 overall and 1-2 in Conference USA.  Their 2 wins came over a struggling Purdue team (blocking a field goal to win) and at home against the terrible Memphis Tigers.  This weekend the Owls lost at Marshall.

21. Tulane - Tulane is usually a safe bet for the top 25 worst teams in the nation.  This year the Green Wave has posted a 2-5 record overall, and sit at 1-2 in Conference USA.  Their only two wins came at home against FCS opponent Southeastern Louisiana, and at the winless UAB Blazers.  The Green Wave has lost to the likes of Duke, Army, and UTEP.  Tulane is 110th in the nation on scoring defense.

These next five take their role as sorry teams a little more seriously:

20. Central Michigan - The Chippewas have seen some success in the MAC in recent years, but that is now a distant memory.  At 2-5 overall and 1-2 in the MAC, things aren't looking good.  The wins came over FCS opponent South Carolina State and conference mate Northern Illinois.  Notable losses include at struggling NC State and at home to Eastern Michigan, a team that is consistently one of the worst in the country.

19. Louisville - Poor Louisville.  They were able to win at Kentucky, but still sit at 2-4 overall and 0-1 in the Big East.  Their only other win was against non-D1A Murray State.  The Cardinals dropped games at home to Florida International and Marshall.  With only 16.3 points per game, (111th in the nation) the Cardinals continue to struggle.

18. Kansas - Is there a team more sorry than Kansas?  Since the loss of Mangino, these Jayhawks have severely struggled.  KU is 2-4 overall, and 0-3 in the Big 12.  Their only wins were against non-D1A McNeese State and a close one over Northern Illinois.  The Jayhawks are dead last in the nation in scoring defense at 49 points per game allowed. 

17. Miami Ohio - Miami Ohio won the MAC last year, but this season has been pretty sorry.  The Red Hawks are 2-4 overall and 1-1 in the MAC.  Their 2 wins came against Army and the terrible Kent State.  They couldn’t even manage a win against AQ school Minnesota in one of the Golden Gophers' worst years.  Miami Ohio sits at dead last in the nation in rushing with only 66.3 yards per game on the ground.

16.  Middle Tennessee - Middle Tennessee is another safe bet for a list of the top 25 worst teams.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 overall and 0-2 in the Sun Belt.  Their only win came at home against a terrible Memphis team.  Their last game was one of their most embarrassing losses: an overtime loss at home against Western Kentucky.  Middle Tennessee's offense stats are somewhat impressive, but at 114th in the nation on scoring defense, the Blue Raiders still make this list.

Now the top 15!  Competition is getting a little tougher:

15. Boston College - How bad is Boston College?  The Eagles are 1-5 overall and 0-3 in the ACC.  Their only win came at home against non-D1A opponent Massachusetts.  They dropped a game at home against Duke.  They may have had some tough opponents in Clemson and Wake Forest, but will need to find wins somewhere in conference play.

14. Buffalo - At least Buffalo fans don't expect much.  (Are there Buffalo fans?)  The Bulls are 2-5 overall and 1-2 in the MAC, albeit with a somewhat respectable win over Ohio.  Their only other win came against the Stony Brook Seawolves (sounds more like a vacation spot than a football team!).  Buffalo also lost to the perennial disappointment Ball State.  With 18.1 points per game (108th in the nation), the Bulls are right where they're used to.

13. Idaho - There's only room for one good team in Idaho, and I'll give you one hint: It's not the Vandals.  This sorry squad is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in the WAC.  Their only win was at home against FCS opponent North Dakota. Notable losses include MAC team Bowling Green, and conference mates LA Tech and New Mexico State.  These Vandals will continue to struggle, only average 76.1 rushing yards (117th in the nation) per game. 

12. Kent State - The Golden Flashes of Kent State are certainly bad enough to make this list.  They are 1-6 overall and 0-3 in the MAC.  (In the MAC!)  Their only win was against non-D1A South Alabama.  They recently lost at home to struggling conference opponent Miami Ohio.  Their offense is putrid, 117th in the nation in passing yards and 118th in rushing yards.  With only 10.7 points per game, they are dead last in the nation in scoring offense.  In their defense, they did travel to Alabama and Kansas State.

11. Akron - I think I played Akron once in the MAC conference title on my Playstation.  I'm pretty sure that's the only time they've ever been good.  The Zips are 1-5 overall and 0-2 in the MAC.  Their only win was against non-D1A opponent Virginia Military Institute.  Akron even lost at Eastern Michigan.  They sit at 114th in the nation in scoring offense, and 111th in scoring defense. 

And finally, the top 10 worst teams in the country:

10. Indiana - The Hoosiers are pretty terrible this year.  They are 1-6 overall, and 0-3 in the Big Ten.  Their only win was against non-D1A school South Carolina State.  Their losses weren't pretty, either.  They Hoosiers lost to Ball State at home in the opener, and at Sun Belt opponent North Texas.  Most people don't even realize that North Texas is a division 1-A school!

9. Colorado ­ - Colorado sure is enjoying its new life in the Pac-12!  The pathetic Buffalos sit at 0-3 in the conference and 1-6 overall.  Their only win came against Colorado State at home.  CU is in the bottom 25 in the nation in rushing yards, points per game, and scoring defense. With the remaining games on their schedule all in the Pac-12, they may not win another game.

 

8. Minnesota - Minnesota… definitely one of the worst teams in the nation.  The Golden Gophers are 1-5 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten.  Their only win was at home against terrible Miami Ohio.  Their most embarrassing loss was at home to FCS opponent North Dakota State.  Purdue is certainly no powerhouse, but they were able to put up 45 points on this sorry Minnesota squad last week.  Minnesota sits at 109th in the nation in both scoring offense and defense.

7. Oregon State - The Oregon State Beavers may have been the worst AQ team in the country until they knocked off Arizona.  The Beavers are 1-5 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12.  The only win is of course against the truly terrible Arizona Wildcats, and their most embarrassing loss came at home to FCS opponent Sacramento State!  It's not often that an AQ team loses to an FCS school.  These Beavers are terrible.

6. Arizona - The Arizona Wildcats may be the worst AQ school in the country.  The Wildcats have lost 10 straight to AQ schools.  They couldn't even manage a win over awful Oregon State last game.  Arizona sits at 1-5 overall and 0-4 in the Pac-12, their only win over non-D1A Northern Arizona.  They are second to last (119th) in the nation in rushing yards, 117th in scoring defense, but mysteriously 3rd in passing yards with 383 a game.  These yards have yet to net any wins.

5. Memphis - This sorry squad of Tigers is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA.  Their only win is against FCS opponent Austin Peay.  Notable (embarrassing) losses include at Middle Tennessee, at Rice, and at home to East Carolina.  They are 116th in the nation on both scoring offense and defense. 

4. UAB - UAB, one of the few winless teams in the nation.  The Blazers sit at 0-6 overall and 0-3 in Conference USA.  At least they haven't lost to any FCS schools, but with only 13.2 points per game (117th in the nation) it doesn't look like improvement is in their future. 

3. UNLV - I would imagine people often forget that Northern Las Vegas fields a division 1 football team.  These Rebels are 1-5 overall and 0-1 in the Mountain West.  Their only win came over an extremely erratic Hawaii team at home.  Their most embarrassing loss came at home to FCS opponent Southern Utah.  They are 113th in the nation in passing yards, 113th in points per game, and 118th (third worst) in the nation on scoring defense.

2. Florida Atlantic - FAU has the honor of being one of the few winless teams in the country, and seeing as how they play in the Sun Belt, that's good enough to earn number 2 on our list. The Owls are 0-6 overall and 0-3 in the Sun Belt.  They are in the bottom 20 in scoring offense and defense, and passing and rushing yards.  At 0-3 in the Sun Belt, no game on the schedule is a cupcake win.  The Owls could easily finish the season with a perfect (losing) record.

1. New Mexico - New Mexico is another of the few winless teams in College Football.  The Lobos are 0-6 overall and 0-1 in the Mountain West.  Their worst loss was at home to FCS opponent Sam Houston State in overtime.  They are 110th in the nation in scoring offense, and 119th in scoring defense, allowing 44 points per game.  With no wins, terrible stats, and a loss to an FCS school, New Mexico is the number one worst team in the country.

And there you have it!  Other teams under consideration were: Northwestern, Iowa State, NC State, Utah, Cal, Ole Miss, Utah State, LA Tech, North Texas, Troy, LA Monroe.