The AP poll has been out for a while now, and while the top looks like most of us would expect, there were a few surprises I'd like to highlight. Let's take a look at two teams, one underrated and one overrated.
The underrated team sits at number 21 in the AP poll, our very own Missouri Tigers. First, I'd like to say that I am glad to see Missouri ranked in the preseason, as they haven't been the past two years. But 21 is a little low.
The big question-mark is obviously at the quarterback position. James Franklin "won" the job by default with the transfer of Tyler Gabbert to Louisville, but prior to this there was no clear-cut starter. However, the past 3 Missouri quarterbacks are now in the NFL, and were very successful in college. Brad Smith, now at Buffalo, does a little bit of everything in the NFL; Chase Daniel sits on the New Orleans sideline with a Super Bowl ring on his finger; and Blaine Gabbert is poised to start at Jacksonville. Not only were all three of these NFL draftees successful in college, but they were very different types of quarterbacks. What does all this mean for Franklin? Well, he may not have been the clear-cut choice like his predecessors were, but Missouri knows how to produce good quarterbacks. For now Franklin may be just a kid with a decent arm that can scramble well, but hey - if that's how his college career starts out he's in good company.
The rest of Missouri's offense is almost completely in tact. MU returns 9 starters on offense, including star tight end Michael Egnew, who is atop many preseason all-American lists. All 3 wide receivers from last year return, giving Franklin experience targets to throw to. Missouri's running backs are all returning and will be more experienced, and a new blocking scheme at O-Line should give them some holes to burst through while Franklin gets adjusted to the offense.
Missouri's defense was a big reason they were so competitive last year, knocking off teams like Oklahoma and Texas A&M (albeit before they got good), and despite the loss of Aldon Smith to the NFL, they look to be strong again. While they only return 6 starters, defensive ends Jaquies Smith and Brad Madison look to improve from last year and lead a strong unit. Linebacker Zavier Gooden is poised for a great year. The only area of concern may be Missouri's secondary since they lose a lot of guys, but as a whole the outlook is still good.
While Missouri may not end up any better than 21 in the polls due to their tough schedule in a smaller-but-still-strong Big 12, they deserve a better preseason ranking. Since these rankings are a poll, it is important to consider the fact that teams are usually ranked based off of their success the previous years. In 2010 Missouri went 10-2, beating Oklahoma and Texas A&M. A slightly improved A&M team deserves a number 8 preseason ranking? Top 15 at least would be respectable for this Missouri squad.
That brings me to a very overrated team. Texas A&M.
Don't get me wrong, I believe in this team. I think that they will be very good. I like what they did last year at 9-3, going 6-0 to close out the season, and all evidence suggests that they are going to continue that trend this year. Despite the loss of star linebacker Von Miller to the Denver Broncos, the defense will be good - if nothing else for the fact that they are now more experienced running the 3-4 scheme. And the defensive coordinator that changed to that scheme in the first is returning to A&M after all, despite talk of departure. They have an experienced secondary and D line, and the only question-mark is replacing Miller. On offense, quarterback Tannehill is experienced and should do fine, as they are returning almost everyone else. So what's the problem then?
The problem is that this is basically the same Texas A&M team that went 9-3 last year and lost thoroughly to LSU in the Cotton Bowl. They had big wins over Oklahoma and a struggling Nebraska team, both at home, but none of that warrants a number 8 preseason ranking. 9-3 may look better in College Station than it does in Norman, but it's still 9-3 (9-4 counting the bowl).
As I said, in polls people tend to rank teams based on their previous year's success, but A&M's body of work should put them somewhere in the high teens or twenty's. I know they will be more experienced and improved, but the hype seems a little ridiculous. Who believes this team will be ranked top-ten at the end of the year?
Texas A&M faces a brutal schedule, with Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas at home. Yes, these are home games, but a very similar Missouri team beat them at home last year, and this is the same A&M team. If Franklin pulls through, the Tigers could beat A&M at home for a second year in a row. Arkansas will be tough as always (and is reasonably ranked, given that they have a new quarterback, at 15 - right around where both Missouri and Texas A&M should be). Oklahoma State seems to lose steam down the stretch (did they make it to the Big 12 title game last year?) but will be tough regardless. Texas won't stay down for long and looks to make a comeback this year, and while I do think A&M will win that game again, there are no givens in big-time rivalry games - or when playing a program like Texas. A&M also faces Oklahoma in Norman, where A&M has dropped its last 6 visits (as has just about every other team, for that matter).
To be fair, the worst-case scenario for this team would be about a 7-5 year. Again, this rank is based on preseason, and I did say that Missouri will be around 21 at the end of the year and should be higher now, but 8 is a little extreme for a team that was 9-3 and could easily end up 7-5. A&M won't be ranked anywhere near 8 at the end of the year, and they shouldn't be there now. They can compete, and it is fortunate that they have most of their big games at home. Despite facing OU on the road they still have a chance to be competitive. A 9-3 year or better is very possible, but it's a long way away. Texas A&M will be tough, but just how tough is yet to be seen. They are not number 8 preseason tough.
Just a couple things,I didn't think Carl Gettis was a worthy corner anyways. He never seemed mentally there last year though he had all the physical tools. I never could fully trust him returning punts or left on an island. Also, Texas A&M will be more focused on realignment than actually playing is year. Plus, everyone will want to give them their best shot especially Texas.
ReplyDeleteSwish
Your feelings for Carl Gettis unfortunately sum up a lot of my feelings towards Mizzou as a whole in the past, particularly on defense. It's composure and mentality that lets them beat OU then lose that bad to Nebraska. Still, I think they deserve more respect than they are getting as they continue to improve.
ReplyDeleteI didn't mention anything about the conference change with A&M (or their desire too) because that's a whole other issue I could go on about, but you are definitely right. They are way too focused on trying to get out of the Big 12 to step up and play. Almost every Big 12 game will be like a rivalry game since each team wants to prove something since A&M is basically calling out the Big 12 as not being as strong as the SEC. (But we all know that A&M just doesn't want to compete with UT!)