I'll admit it, I'm biased in favor of Boise. I love Boise State. I love Kellen Moore. I even own a Boise State t-shirt! But all fan-boy man-crushes aside, Boise State is going to win this game.
First let's talk about Georgia. In 2010, Georgia was bad. I mean really bad. This is a team that started 1-5, losing to the likes of Colorado. They did improve over the course of the year - They beat the Tennesee's and Kentucky's like they were supposed to, and losses to Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn were all understandable (if not easily excusable). It's the SEC, right? They have to be good. Well, it may be time to stop using that excuse. (Vanderbilt gave it up a long time ago). Georgia's growing roar was silenced by Central Florida of Conference-USA in the Liberty Bowl. (UCF won 10-6)
What's changed in the past eight months? First, Georgia does have an extremely efficient sophomore quarterback with a bright future, but star wide receiver A.J. Green is off to the NFL. (Georgia only returns 5 offensive starters.) The main offensive concern is at tailback, since they don't necessarily have one. True freshmen Isaiah Crowell is expected to start and all the reports about him have been extremely positive. He has been compared to Marcus Lattimore of South Carolina, stud freshmen running back last year. I have no doubts that Crowell will be good, but this Saturday he will be facing one of the very best defensive lines in the country (number 2 overall scoring defense last year). You can't ask too much of a freshmen, especially in his first game.
Georgia's defense does look strong, returning 7 from last year's unit that only allowed 22.1 points per game. The d-line has a couple of new faces, and the linebacker unit will need to step up to help them succeed, but the secondary is tough. The 36th ranked unit from last year is poised to improve.
I get it, Georgia is better now. Not every team returns all their starters every year, and first-time starters can be good. I just don't think that a team can improve enough in a single year, especially in their first game, to go from a 6-7 record (losing to Colorado and UCF) to knocking off the number 5 team in the country. (A well-deserved number 5, at that).
Let's take a look at Boise: The Broncos return 7 starters on both sides of the field. Last year Boise was the number 2 offense in the nation in points scored at 45.1 points per game. The returning stars from that offense are of course senior and early Heisman runner Kellen Moore at quarterback and senior Doug Martin at tailback. Martin rushed for 1260 yards last year averaging 6.3 yards a carry. This may have been against teams in the WAC, but as a team, Boise still put up 168 rushing yards against Virginia Tech in week one. An experienced offensive line looks to help Martin repeat last year's success.
If you haven't seen Kellen Moore play the quarterback position, you're missing something special. He only needs 8 wins this year to pass former Texas star Colt McCoy as the all-time winningest quarterback. Moore is a guy that makes guys around him better, like Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy (formerly of Oklahoma and Texas, now of the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, respectively). He never loses composure, even after throwing one of his rare interceptions (only 6 last year). He isn't overly big or strong, but the ball is always exactly where it has to be. Moore does lose his most talented targets Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, but it shouldn't be hard for the new wide-outs to catch his well-thrown passes. Martin will keep things going while these guys get experience.
The seven returning starters and fresh faces on defense will give Georgia the most trouble this Saturday. This was last year's number 2 scoring defense, a Boise unit that only allowed 12.8 points per game. (17.5 points per game in their 4 non-conference games). The Bronco's defensive line is regarded as one of the best in the country going into the year, and the linebackers should be strong again. Most of the new faces will be in a secondary that this Georgia team just doesn't have the personnel to take advantage of. This Boise defense will undoubtedly be stout yet again.
On paper it looks like Georgia has a big edge. One, they are an SEC team, and two, the game is in Atlanta. Can a little old team from the WAC (now Mountain West) travel all the way across the country in week one and knock off a big-time automatic qualifying school? You bet they can.
Recall the Virginia Tech game in week one last year. Boise travelled all the way across the land and knocked off the number 10 team in the nation. (Virginia Tech went on to win the ACC, going undefeated in conference play.) In 2009's opener, Moore led his team at home against Oregon and knocked off the number 16 ducks. By now Boise is accustomed to winning big games, even on the road.
At a basic level of analysis you have to look at two matchups: Can Boise's offense score against Georgia's defense; and can Georgia's offense score on Boise's defense?
I look at it this way: Georgia's D is good. Boise's offense is very good. Boise's D is good, and Georgia's offense is… questionable. Boise will find a way to put up points, but Georgia will struggle to keep up. This Broncos team is filled with experienced winners that will not be fazed by the lights of the big stage. My prediction: Boise wins. And I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a 10 to 14 point margin.
(Don't love Boise State as much as I do? Call me out! Leave a comment and tell us why you think the Bulldogs have what it takes!)
Even though it was one of the best thrillers in college football last year, I was heartbroken when Boise lost to Nevada last year to miss the national championship. I still want them to play Cinderella this year, but with recent recruiting violations and lack of "institutional control" for the athletic programs in Boise I don't ink they will make it there this year.
ReplyDeleteAnother two reasons to root for Boise, Kellen Moore is this year's Heisman and Rock Bridge's Aron White will be a senior tight end this year for Georgia. I don't think he will be very effective.
Adding another point, Wisconsin kicks off it's bid for a national title and should easily run away, literally, with the big ten title. Ohio state is out of contention and Nebraska will not win the big ten it's first year. Everyone is going to "welcome" them to the league and bring there best against them. Back to the Badgers, they are a dark horse to win the championship. No one really takes them seriously. Plus they will be fired Up after a 21-19 loss to TCU in the rose bowl. I can't wait to see them play in Champaign against my Illini.
Swish
Oh man, I remember that game. I just sat there speechless for a good 15 minutes after it was over. I want them to go big too, but it's not really Cinderella story anymore! They are a powerhouse now (at least while Moore's around and the rest of this senior class). And come on, the violations were mainly for women's tennis! I admire the way that Boise set self-imposed punishments and handled it very well. Stuff like that goes on at almost every university, but not everybody gets caught.
ReplyDeleteI have been leaning towards Wisconsin for my Big 10 pick. Probably sometime this week we are going to make our conference champion predictions and post them on here. I know a lot of people like Nebraska to win it but I agree, I really don't think they will. Besides the fact that they will be played hard, the Big 10 is just tough, and they are still an unsteady team. Remember their losses last year, to Texas, A&M, etc.? They are another huge team like A&M that I think is overrated this year.
Anyways, look for conference predictions sometime in the week. Screw Rockbridge, and go Boise!