Time to Trim the Hedges

According to many critics, Georgia's Saturday match-up against 5th ranked Boise State will be the start of the most important season of Mark Richt's career as head coach at Athens, Georgia. Richt is a popular choice in preseason discussion as one of the coaches on the hot seat - and they say it probably won't cool off anytime soon if Georgia loses their first two games to (#5) Boise State and (#12) South Carolina.

The Bulldogs dismal 7-9 showing in the SEC the past two years has many Dawg faithful worried. They had a terrible start in 2010, losing to the likes of Colorado and Mississippi State (At the time, Mississippi State had yet to begin their banner year). When A.J. Green came back from suspension, Georgia turned things around and finished 5-3 - but it was too little too late. If the season wasn't bad enough, the UGA faithful had to be shocked again when their Dawgs had a lackluster performance in a 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the prestigious Liberty Bowl (I didn't even hear about this bowl last year). So, what should Georgia do with Richt if the team struggles this season?

If Georgia loses to Boise and South Carolina, they have to give Richt walking papers! I mean seriously, how can Georgia keep around a man with his record of service over the last ten years if he has 2 mediocre years, and loses to two highly ranked teams to start the season? In this world of "what have you done for me lately?" he cannot stick around, and he has no excuses - considering he has hauled in top ten recruiting classes every year of his tenure (except 2010). Plus, his 3.5 million dollar salary is way too much for a coach who hasn't won a National Title, right? It's time for the Dawgs to move on and get someone that can put those recruiting classes to better use... Right?

If you really believe all that, you are certifiably insane, or on some serious drugs.

Richt should not be feeling any heat about losing his job at this point, even if UGA drops their first two games. In fact, unless this season is a total disaster, Richt shouldn't feel any warmth in his chair at all. What Richt has done at Georgia is nothing short of phenomenal, and should at least buy him a couple more years.

Seriously, who do you Dawg fans think you are? You act like UGA is historically a national power, among the likes of Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame, and USC. It's time to trim the hedges, and look out into the world to see where Georgia realistically fits into the college football landscape. They win one National Title 30 years ago, and the city of Athens thinks they're an elite program. News flash - BYU did the same thing too about thirty years ago. (Though they do have a network now!). No disrespect to the Georgia faithful, but, come on! No, really, come on! Instead of calling for Richt's head, you should be strongly supporting a man who in the last ten years has made Georgia relevant again.

Let's look at Richt's body of work and let the facts speak for themselves. Richt's overall record the last ten years is 96-34, and he is one of only 7 coaches to have 90 wins in their first nine seasons. If the .738 win percentage, placing him 4th among active coaches, isn't good enough, how about 6 seasons of double digit wins? Do I need to remind you he's done this year in and year out in the strongest conference, the SEC? Prior to Richt's arrival, Georgia hadn't won an SEC crown in 20 years. All Richt's done is take them to three SEC title games and won two of them. He's also taken the Dawgs to ten bowl games, including two Sugar Bowl wins. (Albeit against Notre Dame and Hawaii). Even if you aren't impressed with his numbers, what about the 201 players he's graduated? (Sadly this rarely factors in with fans). Rather than making plans on when to get rid of this guy, maybe the school and the alumni need to hire a sculptor so they can build a proper likeness of the man and place it near the stadium.

Don't get me wrong Georgia fans, UGA runs a good program. The fans have every right to be upset about the last two seasons, but talk of firing Richt is absolutely ludicrous. Despite last year's disappointment, Dawg fans have a lot to look forward to this season. Georgia signed one of the best recruiting classes in years (top 5), which includes one of the best freshman backs in Isaiah Crowell. Crowell will help improve a running game that was nearly absent last season (10th in the SEC). Quarterback Aaron Murray returns from an impressive freshman year, more seasoned and confident, albeit without wide-out A.J. Green. Don't forget, Richt has an amazing record with Georgia quarterbacks. Green, Shockley, and Stafford ring a bell?

All in all, the offense will still struggle with only 5 returning starters, but the defense will be strong with their nucleus returning. The good news is Georgia is in the weaker SEC East. This is a program that is a year away from a stellar season. Don't get me wrong, the Dawgs will have their hands full this weekend and the next, but let's not be too quick to write Richt off, even if they do lose those two games. Before Richt arrived, the only thing Georgia was known for was their cute mascot Uga and their hedges.

Broncos Set to Stampede

 This Saturday, September 3rd, the Boise State Broncos faces the Georgia Bulldogs in Atlanta. 

I'll admit it, I'm biased in favor of Boise.  I love Boise State.  I love Kellen Moore.  I even own a Boise State t-shirt!  But all fan-boy man-crushes aside, Boise State is going to win this game.

First let's talk about Georgia.  In 2010, Georgia was bad.  I mean really bad.  This is a team that started 1-5, losing to the likes of Colorado.  They did improve over the course of the year - They beat the Tennesee's and Kentucky's like they were supposed to, and losses to Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn were all understandable (if not easily excusable).  It's the SEC, right?  They have to be good.   Well, it may be time to stop using that excuse. (Vanderbilt gave it up a long time ago).  Georgia's growing roar was silenced by Central Florida of Conference-USA in the Liberty Bowl.  (UCF won 10-6) 

What's changed in the past eight months?  First, Georgia does have an extremely efficient sophomore quarterback with a bright future, but star wide receiver A.J. Green is off to the NFL.  (Georgia only returns 5 offensive starters.)  The main offensive concern is at tailback, since they don't necessarily have one.  True freshmen Isaiah Crowell is expected to start and all the reports about him have been extremely positive.  He has been compared to Marcus Lattimore of South Carolina, stud freshmen running back last year.  I have no doubts that Crowell will be good, but this Saturday he will be facing one of the very best defensive lines in the country (number 2 overall scoring defense last year).  You can't ask too much of a freshmen, especially in his first game.    

Georgia's defense does look strong, returning 7 from last year's unit that only allowed 22.1 points per game.  The d-line has a couple of new faces, and the linebacker unit will need to step up to help them succeed, but the secondary is tough.  The 36th ranked unit from last year is poised to improve. 

I get it, Georgia is better now.  Not every team returns all their starters every year, and first-time starters can be good.   I just don't think that a team can improve enough in a single year, especially in their first game, to go from a 6-7 record (losing to Colorado and UCF) to knocking off the number 5 team in the country.  (A well-deserved number 5, at that). 

Let's take a look at Boise:  The Broncos return 7 starters on both sides of the field.  Last year Boise was the number 2 offense in the nation in points scored at 45.1 points per game.  The returning stars from that offense are of course senior and early Heisman runner Kellen Moore at quarterback and senior Doug Martin at tailback.  Martin rushed for 1260 yards last year averaging 6.3 yards a carry.  This may have been against teams in the WAC, but as a team, Boise still put up 168 rushing yards against Virginia Tech in week one.  An experienced offensive line looks to help Martin repeat last year's success. 

If you haven't seen Kellen Moore play the quarterback position, you're missing something special.  He only needs 8 wins this year to pass former Texas star Colt McCoy as the all-time winningest quarterback.  Moore is a guy that makes guys around him better, like Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy (formerly of Oklahoma and Texas, now of the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns, respectively).  He never loses composure, even after throwing one of his rare interceptions (only 6 last year).  He isn't overly big or strong, but the ball is always exactly where it has to be.  Moore does lose his most talented targets Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, but it shouldn't be hard for the new wide-outs to catch his well-thrown passes.  Martin will keep things going while these guys get experience. 

The seven returning starters and fresh faces on defense will give Georgia the most trouble this Saturday.  This was last year's number 2 scoring defense, a Boise unit that only allowed 12.8 points per game.  (17.5 points per game in their 4 non-conference games).  The Bronco's defensive line is regarded as one of the best in the country going into the year, and the linebackers should be strong again.  Most of the new faces will be in a secondary that this Georgia team just doesn't have the personnel to take advantage of.  This Boise defense will undoubtedly be stout yet again.  

 

On paper it looks like Georgia has a big edge.  One, they are an SEC team, and two, the game is in Atlanta.  Can a little old team from the WAC (now Mountain West) travel all the way across the country in week one and knock off a big-time automatic qualifying school?  You bet they can.

Recall the Virginia Tech game in week one last year.  Boise travelled all the way across the land and knocked off the number 10 team in the nation.  (Virginia Tech went on to win the ACC, going undefeated in conference play.)  In 2009's opener, Moore led his team at home against Oregon and knocked off the number 16 ducks.  By now Boise is accustomed to winning big games, even on the road. 

At a basic level of analysis you have to look at two matchups:  Can Boise's offense score against Georgia's defense; and can Georgia's offense score on Boise's defense? 

I look at it this way:  Georgia's D is good.  Boise's offense is very good.  Boise's D is good, and Georgia's offense is… questionable.  Boise will find a way to put up points, but Georgia will struggle to keep up.  This Broncos team is filled with experienced winners that will not be fazed by the lights of the big stage.  My prediction: Boise wins.  And I wouldn't be surprised if it was by a 10 to 14 point margin. 

(Don't love Boise State as much as I do?  Call me out!  Leave a comment and tell us why you think the Bulldogs have what it takes!)