This week the Oregon Ducks crushed Nevada 69-20, but a week ago Oregon was easily defeated by LSU at Dallas stadium, 27-40. These two games have left many Duck fans wondering where their team stands after coming off of a spectacular season that ended in a loss to Auburn in the BCS Championship game. Preseason polls placed Oregon at #3, due in large part to the return of signal caller Darren Thomas and the do-it-all back LaMichael James. It makes sense at first glance to place Oregon high in the polls, since Thomas and James were the primary weapons of an explosive offense that led the nation in scoring and total offense last year. The Ducks will be extremely strong this season, but it will take time and development as the year goes on for them to win a third straight conference title.
One of the most important factors to consider when evaluating the potential repeat success of a team is not just the signal caller, but the number of bodies returning on both the offensive and defensive lines. Football fans know that if you don't control the line of scrimmage on offense, it doesn't matter who's calling the plays or running the ball (Unless your name is Sanders). Equally, if you lack any push on the defensive side, you can't stop anyone. Unfortunately for the Ducks, they lost a lot on both lines. On offense they had to replace three linemen, including the most important position at center. The spot was filled by Karrington Armstrong, a less than experienced Sophomore. The Ducks defensive line may not be as a big of a concern, because Defensive Coordinator Nick Aliotti likes to rotate defensive lineman, but they still lost three starters, and won't be as deep as they were last year. Last season Aliotti's defense dominated in the second half of games due to this depth. A lack of fresh bodies could mean a different outcome in tight games like last year's match up with Cal. Another major concern is the loss of two starting wide outs. That leaves this Duck offense thin at this position, and Thomas may have to rely on standout tight end David Paulson.
The o-line is inexperienced now, but as the season wears on the unit will gel, and the experience of Thomas and James in the backfield will only help to speed up that development. The defense won't be as strong up front, but will be solid in a secondary that returns three starters, including CB Cliff Harris, who might be one of the most dynamic players in the nation. Despite the setbacks, the Ducks are still an elite team. Their schedule is extremely favorable, and the only game that I see as a potential problem is at Stanford (November 12). This game will most likely determine who represents the North in the Pac-12 championship game.
Many of you may be questioning my optimistic outlook for Oregon, considering their debacle against the Tigers in week one. This first game of the season was just that: a first game. Only this one happened to be against one of the best teams in the nation. Oregon may have been a bit overrated coming into the season, but Duck fans shouldn't be worried. If you examine the LSU game more closely, you'll see that the Ducks gave the game away by committing 4 turnovers leading to 20 points. You aren't going to beat very many teams turning the ball over that many times (just ask Notre Dame). At halftime, the score was only 13-16, with 7 of the Tigers' points due to a Duck turnover (Their fill-in punt returner chose to field a ball at the 5 yard line, and was stripped, resulting in an LSU touchdown). Late in the third quarter, the highly touted freshman Duck D'Anthony Thomas fumbled the ball on two successive touches, leading to two Tiger scores which sealed the game. These turnovers demonstrate a lack of experience and discipline - something that will be fixed by Chip Kelly and his coaching staff. We also can't forget that Cliff Harris was suspended for the game - his replacement allowed one of the few offensive touchdowns by the Tigers. No disrespect to LSU, but this game was an aberration, not the norm for the Ducks. Lack of experience coupled with a vicious opponent was a recipe for disaster. Duck fans, remember in 2009 you got beat up by Boise State in the opener, and still went on to play in the Rose Bowl.
In week 2 Oregon looked like their old self, beating up on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Thomas led the way with 6 touchdowns as the Ducks of old posted 600 yards. (However the Oregon D did allow 500 yards.) Yes, they beat a depleted Wolf Pack, but I think this is a sign of the Ducks returning to the old team we've grown accustomed to in the last couple of years. The Oregon quack attack is on course, and don't be surprised if the Ducks find themselves landing in a BCS game this coming January.
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